1、 Macro news
1. Central Bank: Published a paper titled "Expected Transmission and Policy Resonance of the Impact of International Financial Crisis". The paper proposes four policy recommendations: firstly, to strengthen expectation management; secondly, to strengthen international coordination of macro policies; thirdly, to pay attention to coordinating domestic and foreign currency policies, and to balance internal and external equilibrium; fourthly, to continue to promote the transformation of monetary policy regulatory frameworks towards a price oriented approach.
2. Chongyang Investment President Wang Qing: In response to Zhang Wenhong's view that once the global confirmed cases of the epidemic reach their peak, it is possible to consider buying some stocks, this judgment has some validity. If the number of new cases gradually decreases, the stock market may see it as a significant turning point. At present, the global liquidity crisis has temporarily come to an end. Next, the timing of the turning point of the US epidemic is the focus that we need to pay attention to.
3. Shanghai Securities News: Due to the early locking of low oil price sources, the consumption rate of import quotas for crude oil refined in some parts of China has accelerated, and the first batch of quotas has been used up or is about to be used up. The industry believes that there is a high possibility that the Ministry of Commerce will issue the first batch of additional quotas to some scarce refineries in advance this year, and the second batch of non-state-owned trade import allowances for crude oil may also be issued earlier this year. The Zhejiang Free Trade Zone has nearly 6000 oil and gas enterprises and a total of 31 million cubic meters of oil storage capacity. The local finished oil depots are now mostly full, and most of the crude oil depots have also been fully booked.
2、 Oils and their downstream products
Regarding glycerol: On 4/2, the imported barrel glycerol market price in South China remained stable. There is a shortage of low-priced goods in the market, and the actual transaction speed is slow. Downstream buyers are slowly accepting high prices. Reference price: Spring gold is priced between 5900-6100 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to refer to 5700-5900 yuan/ton for sources such as Green Treasure. The imported barrel glycerol market in East China is stable. Holders maintain stable prices for shipments and have limited supply of low-priced goods. Downstream small orders are accepted, while accepting high prices. Reference prices: Lvbao and Chunjin are priced at 5700-6000 yuan/ton, Lvbao is priced at 5700-5800 yuan/ton, and Chunjin is priced at 5800-6000 yuan/ton.
Fatty alcohols: Due to the wide fluctuation of kernel oil prices and the interweaving of supply and demand, it is difficult to obtain clear guidance on fatty alcohols from the raw material aspect. It is expected that the fatty alcohol market will be mainly wait-and-see today and temporarily stable.
Downstream sector: On April 2nd, Huabao Group mentioned in the CEO's report that it will expand overseas markets and strengthen foreign trade exports. The company has been strengthening its research and expansion in the Southeast Asian market in recent years, and has now formed a certain scale. In 2020, the company will continue to maintain its development efforts in the Southeast Asian market, while actively expanding into markets in Africa, the Middle East, and South America, preparing for overseas business departments, conducting on-site inspections in multiple countries, establishing overseas market databases, participating in international exhibitions, and seizing the development opportunities of overseas markets. The company's daily chemical essence products, such as incense disinfection and sterilization, washing, personal care and perfume essence, are actively distributed in overseas markets.
3、 Overseas markets
1. According to the Jakarta Post, citing industry insiders, Indonesia's palm oil exports to China plummeted by half in January due to global uncertainty. The Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (GAPKI) released a statement on Tuesday stating that Indonesia's palm oil exports to China in January decreased by 381000 tons or 57% year-on-year. This also resulted in Indonesia's palm oil exports dropping from 3.72 million tons in December 2019 to 2.39 million tons in January, a month on month decrease of 35.6%.
2. The supply and demand sides in Asia are cooling off, and palm oil is expected to lead the vegetable oil market in the later stage of a turnaround
According to foreign reports, according to a document from the government of Sabah, Malaysia, the state has extended the order to suspend palm oil production to six regions. Sabah is the largest palm oil producing state in Malaysia, accounting for about 25% of the country's total production. It is worth noting that in order to control the spread of the coronavirus, the Malaysian government has ordered the closure of palm plantations and factories located in Douhu, Lahad Datuk, Kinabatangan, Karabakan, Sembuna, and Kunak until April 14th (originally terminated on March 31st). However, it is worth noting that Indonesia, which is closely related to Malaysia, is currently the world's largest producer of palm oil. Most infected individuals in Indonesia are concentrated in the capital city of Jakarta and surrounding areas. Although Jakarta has declared a state of emergency and closed schools and public entertainment venues, complete closure measures have not been taken so far, which has limited the impact on palm oil production.
